Did we warn people enough?

By Andy Vital


THERE is a prevailing discomfort among weather experts in the Asia-Pacific area about how we in the Philippines estimate the impact of the many storm systems that come our way every year.

It's not the capability of our own PAGASA to be the "lookout" within the PAR (Philippine Area of Responsibility) they're watching closely. It's the way we classify storms and give out the proper warnings to our own people that they say we need to review.


And I think we should. You see, there's a big gaping hole somewhere when national authorities say on the first day we were lucky there is "zero casualty" in the areas in Northern Mindanao hit by Tropical Storm Sendong last year, and hours later, local authorities further south counting dozens of dead bodies in Davao Oriental and Compostela Valley. The fatality count could reach as many as 800.

First question: why do we tend to downgrade the estimates of wind velocity that a storm carries, and always give lower estimates than what the Americans could read out of their own data?
When Typhoon Pablo (international code name: Bopha) was roaring towards Eastern Mindanao that fateful Tuesday, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Hawaii was saying wind velocities near the eye of the storm were up to 220 kilometers per hour. NASA even had a worse projection:

“Bopha reached Category 5 status on the Saffir-Simpson Scale for the first time today, Dec. 3. Over the last several days it peaked at a powerful Category 4 typhoon. On Dec. 3 at 1500 UTC (Dec. 3, 10 p.m. PH Time), Bopha had regained Super Typhoon status as maximum sustained winds increased to 140 knots (161 miles per hour/259 kilometers per hour). Bopha was located near 7.6 north latitude and 128.2 east longitude, about 630 nautical miles (725 miles/1,167 km) southeast of Manila, Philippines…”

PAGASA's estimate then was at 175kph, way below that of JTWC and NASA. That was the velocity of Pablo’s center winds when it actually hit land along eastern Davao Oriental past 4:30 a.m. on Dec. 4, ravaging towns like Boston, Cateel, Baganga, and Taragona, leaving most homes totally damaged, flattened to the ground.

If you happen to ask why we have lower velocity estimates, PAGASA experts would tell you it's there job to do the math when any storm is within the PAR - not JTWC's nor JMA's (that's the Japan Meteorological Agency).

But do you see how important it is to give the right estimates and tell the people what to expect in terms of damage? You see, in our system of issuing warnings about typhoons, there is a thin line between the requirements for raising Signal No. 3 and Signal No. 4. PAGASA raises Signal No. 3 whenever wind velocities reach up to 185kph. Beyond 185kph, it's got to be Signal No. 4.

Which leads us to the second question: if wind velocity estimates were right, shouldn't we have raised Signal No. 4 along the shorelines of Eastern Mindanao? Or at least over Davao Oriental which bore the cruelty of the initial devastation?

I was listening to almost every press briefing PAGASA and the NDRRMC were giving days and hours before Pablo was to hit. I followed every warning released since the storm entered PAR. And I am sure no one among those agency representatives sitting as members of the NDRRMC ever gave warnings that 175kph winds would rip the GI roofs off houses, schoolbuildings, gyms, churches, public buildings where people evacuated to and later found out they weren't safe in.

By the way, yes, the NDRRMC is a council, not a one-man army of retired Army Special Forces General Benito Ramos taking orders from an almost invisible defense secretary and NDRRMC chairman, retired General Voltaire Gazmin. I never doubted the abilities of these two fine generals, especially the more experienced Ramos, to lead soldiers into battle during crunch time. But of the way they're leading the NDRRMC, I wouldn't say the same.

But let's talk about that later.

Let's just help convince President Aquino and the bosses there at PAGASA and the NDRRMC to review the storm warning system, and not feel slighted when DZRH always mentions forecast models from the US JTWC and the Japan Meteorological Agency side by side with their own forecast.

And for you guys there at PAGASA and the NDRRMC (if we ever get to hear other experts in the council other than General Ramos), when you do your press briefings next time, don't just think of the large maps and the satellite images superimposed on them like they're just drawings on your Powerpoint or white board. Think of the small towns and barangays and sitios on those maps, and the thousands of families and people living in them who depend on you for their safety and their lives. And tell them honestly, in very real terms, whether or not their own houses, and the evacuation centers they will run to, would be able to withstand the projected wind velocities, and keep them safe until the storm is over.

They deserve that. The mayors in those small towns that you expect to respond first deserve that. We all deserve that.